Buy and Sell – Week 12
Before we proceed to week 12’s buy-and-sell, a few more words on names from last time:
Danario Alexander had another big day. I like him. A lot. More importantly, so does Philip Rivers. Alexander has the rare combination of size and speed that give him an extremely high ceiling in terms of both fantasy and real-life production, and as long as he stays healthy he should light up your weekly scoreboard. While he clearly can’t maintain a 20-point-per-week pace, I do think he has a couple more big games before all is said and done in 2012.
Matt Forte and the entire Bears offense looked terrible. But, I’m not retracting my “Buy” recommendation just yet, not even after looking at Forte’s less-than-enviable schedule. Even in a game where the Bears fell behind early and had a passing attack which was entirely shut down, Forte still saw 21 carries for 63 yards. Reading between the lines: Chicago knows they need him more involved, earlier, and with better results. I think the Vikings can be run on and the week 15 home tilt with Green Bay is huge. Big players play big in big games. I’d still be happy with Forte on my roster.
With that said, here’s my…
WEEK 12 BUY!!!
Do your best day-trader impression and click furiously until you have the following on your roster:
Yeah, everyone knows Manning is good. I had big brother on my “buy” as early as week one, and stand by it. I put him here because he’s a great trade target (if you have an hour or day or two left). His schedule is outstanding and while I doubt the season-ending injury to Willis McGahee changes the offense too much, it certainly won’t reduce Manning’s throws.
…if he keeps the job. Until we know whether or not Jim Harbaugh makes good on his “hot hand” statement, Kaepernick is worth a waiver claim nonetheless. If he takes over, he inherits one of the NFC’s most efficient offenses. It gets better: 3 of his final 5 games are against the Saints, Patriots, and Dolphins… not exactly a “who’s who” of stalwart pass defenses.
I wrote about Cecil Shorts last week and the same applies to Henne: the Jaguars actually throw quite a bit. Blaine Gabbert, injuries and all, still threw the ball more than 30 times/game on average through ten games. I think the workload stays the same and hey, the Jags will be behind.
Hillman is the more talented of the two rushers who could take over for McGahee (the other being Lance Ball). Hillman also fits the requirement of “playing for a good offense.” Given a full workload, which I think he will come close to, he should produce nice numbers on a weekly basis as a guest-star on the Peyton Manning Show.
If I had to pick one fantasy back to come out of nowhere and be a playoff MVP, it would be Rodgers. 15 carries for 46 yards (Michael Turner’s week 11 output) simply isn’t getting it done. If Atlanta continues to have rough outings like last week’s home game against the Cardinals, I think they look for ways to tweak the offense headed into the playoffs. It’s all about momentum, and right now the Falcons are trending the wrong direction. All you need is Quizz!
This just in: the Colts throw. A lot. If Donnie Avery misses any significant time, Hilton could have more strong performances. While he may not match his 6-100-2 stat line from week 11, he could certainly emerge as a strong WR2/Flex option, especially in deeper leagues.
He has the talent, the size, and the schedule to be a late-season game changer. The question marks are his health and his usage. The Titans just had a bye week to figure out how to integrate one of their best weapons and Britt should be nearly fully healed from early season knee and ankle injuries.
…and if there was one wide receiver who might help vault you into the playoffs, it would be Edelman. Edelman is a high-upside pickup who you should stash on your bench for at least one more week. He played nearly 80% of the snaps last week and saw seven targets. With target-eater Rob Gronkowski out for at least a month and Deion Branch gone, Edelman’s role could increase even more in the coming weeks.
Speaking of Gronk, what to do? Allen is another nice upside play. His targets have been fairly consistent and Allen has been reliable for 4-6 points each week. If he finds the endzone, that’s a great play. Again, Donnie Avery’s injury helps his value, and Colby Fleener doesn’t seem quite ready to return, either.
Clark has two scores in the last two weeks and three in the last five. The Bucs are an emerging offense and I think Greg Schiano finds ways to keep the veteran more involved.
You’ve struck paydirt, now move them before it’s too late.
While the Pittsburgh Steelers remain on my sell list (and yes, that means everyone – including all running backs, receivers, and Heath Miller), I’m also adding the Philadelphia Eagles.
I’m selling Jeremy Maclin, Desean Jackson, and Brent Celek for whatever I can get. Given the trade deadline has passed, that also includes dropping them for similar-tier players. Today, I was asked via twitter if I’d drop Maclin for Brandon Lloyd. Sadly for Maclin owners, I think the answer is yes. Lloyd was only on the field for just over half of the Patriots snaps last weekend. Maclin, meanwhile, was on the field for the majority of the Eagles plays and his quarterback threw the ball 46 times… only three of which targeted Maclin. As I said in my response, fewer snaps with Brady is still better than more snaps with Foles, the veracity of which was proven last week when Lloyd recorded 4 points to Maclin’s goose egg, despite the playing time differential. Players I’d rather own than Maclin or Jackson include: Danario Alexander, Cecil Shorts, Brandon Lloyd, T.Y. Hilton, and yeah, I think even Julian Edelman.
Additional Sells this week:
Justin Blackmon had an amazing breakthrough performance against the Texans in an absolutely bizarre, unpredictable game. This was obviously an anomaly and nothing to get worked up about. Yeah, I get it, he could have some sort of chemistry with new Jaguars starter Chad Henne. Still, I’d rather have Cecil Shorts, who has been more of a consistent play-maker. Keep in mind, Blackmon only had 236 receiving yards through 10 weeks before the game with Houston. Yeah.
Beanie Wells sure has created a lot of buzz with his return but the bad news is: he’s still Beanie Wells. I’ll ask the same question for Wells that I asked for Ryan Matthews early in the season: what has he ever really done? Wells is a mediocre back at best and an injury waiting to happen. He also has one of the toughest stretch schedules for any back in football. Sell. Sell. Sell. I wouldn’t even waste a roster spot unless I was completely desperate.
Benjamin Watson scored twice and, if Las Vegas oddsmakers cared about such things, would likely be favored NOT to do so again in 2012. With the need to replace Rob Gronkowski, I could imagine many an owner looking Watson’s way, but I think you would do better with Dallas Clark, Dwayne Allen, or even Tony Moeaki.
New England Defense/Special Teams
I know they put up a lot of points against a pretty good Indianapolis Colts team, but don’t get cute. The Patriots secondary is still terrible and you don’t want negative points in your lineup when it counts the most.
That’s it for week 12, best of luck this week! As always you can follow me @petethegreekff on Twitter or check out my blog: mindofpetros.blogspot.com.