Buy And Sell Week 4
Week 4 Buy and Sell
If you want, think of this like the stock market. Fantasy free agency and player trading is no different than a commodities exchange: you’ll get the best deal (and the greatest chance for profit) when you buy-low and watch the stock explode. For example, if you went after DeMarco Murray last week (as was suggested in this space!) you were richly rewarded. Now, it’s too late. With the lack of depth at running back this season, the price will be too high. Even though I think he’s legit as long as he enjoys continued health, the amount you’ll have to give up to get him doesn’t merit the deal. Unless you find an owner who desperately wants off the Murray-train, you won’t get enough return on your investment.
Last week, I had two Giants in my “Buy” list: Brandon Myers and Hakeem Nicks. Given the disastrous start to the season, it would be easy to bail on any Giants until further notice, but I’m going to stick to my guns on both of these guys. Let’s be honest, their value is about as low as it can possibly get right now. You can probably pick up Nicks for WR-3 value or lower, and he won’t be this bad all season. Don’t love him this week against Kansas City, so you still should have at least one more week to acquire him, but if you’re hurting at WR he is definitely worth the look assuming he comes as cheaply as I’d expect. The same goes for Myers. The Panthers were an underrated defensive unit coming into the season and with the outstanding early play of Star Lotulelei seem to be vastly improved from 2012. Week 3 was ugly for the Giants. Not every game will be this bad. I’m buying both as cheap adds and you can probably find Myers on the waiver wire, if not Nicks. Some names I’d rather have Myers over, for value sake? I’d pick up Brandon Myers over Heath Miller, Charles Clay (a hot name at the moment), Tyler Eifert, and Kyle Rudolph.
WEEK 4 BUY!!!
Do your best day-trader impression and click furiously until you have the following on your roster:
Robert Griffin III
The second week in a row RG3 finds himself in this space and, likely, the last. Oakland’s D is not stout by any estimation and the word on the Washington practice field is this may be the week when Griffin III starts running more out of the read-option. Even if that’s not the case, I think he puts up big numbers in this game and those who drafted him won’t let go of him afterwards.
Great matchup this week. So far, he’s been decent-but-not-great. I think this week he turns it on. Keep in mind, he still has two games with Washington, two with Philadelphia, and one tilt left with the Giants on the schedule ahead. That’s a lot of tastiness for a fantasy quarterback tp feast on.
I really doubt you find an owner to bail on him this early, but if someone is 0-3 and panicking you may be able to swoop in for a free lunch. Let’s see how he performs in tonight’s game as it’s unlikely you’ll be able to swing a trade before the Thursday-nighter, but if he is anything less than spectacular I’d make a lowball offer for him.
Under the Colin Kaepernick “it can’t get any worse than this” theory, Spiller’s value is likely as low as it will possibly be all season. Here’s all the one-liners you need to swindle someone: Fred Jackson has more than doubled his fantasy points in standard scoring (32 points to 14). Spiller is only averaging 3.55 yards/carry in 2013. He has four tough matchups in a row starting this week (Blatimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Miami). Oh, and his fantasy scoring output has been more than doubled by Fred Jackson. Did I mention that already?
Last chance. All aboard the Miller train. I think he has a big week against New Orleans and after he does, his owners will feel justified drafting him. As it stands, you still may be able to get him below market value.
What? Here’s a name from left field. This is more of a deeper-league add as I doubt he is owned in anything more shallow than a 14-teamer, but just for reference, Ellington was on the field for more snaps than any other Cardinals running back in week 3. He’s a pass catcher who intrigues me (and likely the Arizona coaching staff) a lot more than the older, slower Rashard Mendenhall. If I had to pick one name that no one is talking about who could earn fantasy MVP status for the second half of the season, it would probably be Ellington. You heard it here, first.
I think the national media is not giving the Chicago Bears second year wideout enough attention. Through three games, he has 21 targets (7/game) and does get red-zone looks both on fades and slants. I would imagine he’s still on the waiver wire in many leagues but even if he isn’t, he’s still worth a look as a “throw-in” to a deal. His production is coming. Soon, these targets will turn into touchdowns and longer yardage. You’ll want to have him rostered before that happens, not after.
Only 8 points in week three. This is your last chance to get him for anything other than WR1 value. Do it before it’s too late.
Saw plenty of targets in week three but underwhelmed with only 44 yards and no scores. I don’t think Danny Amendola will be back any time soon, and even if he is I think Edelman still has value as a WR2 or weekly flex play. Again, buy low!
Six catches in each of his first three games. Similar to Alshon Jeffery, the targets are already here and the production will be coming soon. Like the Rams, I love Austin’s talent. He will break out. If you own him, keep him. If you don’t own him, find him on the cheap.
Nate Burleson’s injury caught the attention of many a fantasy owner, so it’s likely everyone loves Broyles this week (and went out to pick him up). Burleson will be out for awhile and Broyles has a real opportunity here to seize the role as the second WR in a very, very pass-happy offense. There’s a lot of value to that, especially if he can return to form after his second ACL injury.
Averaging more than 8 targets/game, Olsen remains Cam Newton’s number one option in the Panthers’ passing game. He’s on a bye this week and owners strapped for a roster spot may even drop him after he only scored a meager 5 fantasy points in week three. They shouldn’t. Pick him up.
The Bears got up big early on Pittsburgh this past Sunday night and Bennett wasn’t as necessary as he has been. That won’t be the case every week. Love me some “Black Unicorn,” as Bennett calls himself.
Now’s the time to cash in those chips, partner.
I know, I know. I’ve had him here before (after week one) and he just had another nice week, putting up four touchdowns. But guess what? You can’t play the Jaguars every week. Seattle’s offensive line is banged up and this is still a run-first team. I think Wilson’s value is as high right now as it will be all season, and that is the very definition of a “sell.”
It’s likely too late, but Andrew Luck will be a much better actual NFL quarterback than he will fantasy commodity. With Bruce Arians gone, the Colts are turning more and more toward the run game. And with a new two-headed monster of Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson, Luck’s fantasy value will continue to drop until he’s no longer startable. I think his name still will garner some trade value. Use it while you still can.
Chris Ivory won’t be hurt forever and this is still the Jets, remember. Also, just like the Jaguars, you can’t play the Bills every week.
Jonathan Stewart is coming (likely in week seven). Also, there’s still Cam Newton and Mike Tolbert when the Panthers get in close. I don’t see Williams finishing the season as a top-20 back and if you can get anything close to that in return for him this week or next, you should.
Basically, all the things I said about Andre Ellington apply here. Mendenhall had a few nice games to start the season, but it won’t last. You may be able to still cash in on his early success, and can also still use the one-liner: “Well, he is a starting running back in the NFL!” Please do use it before it’s too late.
Huge week. Huge. Won’t happen again. I think the Steelers are a lost cause and the whole “down often, throwing a lot” thing might apply quite often, but he won’t put up 31 fantasy points every week. Remind your potential trading partner that the Steelers stink and the targets will be there, then trade him.
I don’t know what will happen now that Josh Freeman is gone, but I don’t want to find out. His value is already on the decline, I’d try to move him before it hits rock bottom.
Just one name this week, but a big one…
Gates has double digit points in each of the past two weeks, but that trend isn’t likely to continue. The Chargers have had a hot (at least fantasy-wise) start to the season and that coupled with Gates name value may still bring a decent amount in a trade. I think age catches up to Gates sooner rather than later and his long injury history also remains a concern. With the depth at tight end this year, you probably have a better option which makes Gates expendable.
Best of luck in week four. As always you can tweet concerns, questions, or rants to @petethegreekff or check out my blog petegreek.blogspot.com.