Buy and Sell!
Buy and Sell
Brandon Jacobs. Brandon. Jacobs. Really?
Look, let me save you the trouble now: don’t waste a waiver claim on him. Like, wasn’t it enough, Tom Coughlin? Wasn’t it enough to make myriads of fantasy prognosticators look bad for their preseason love of David Wilson? Wasn’t it enough to make Da’Rel Scott the most unheralded and unlikely week one stud at the running back position? Wasn’t it enough to even allow the rumor to escape that you were even, like, in some remote alternate bizarro universe considering Willis McGahee? C’mon. Admit it. You were giggling the whole time, right? Snickering maniacally as the twitterverse exploded with Willis Waiver Fever.
Please, don’t insult my intelligence.
Week one is the first game action we see after months of expectation, so a certain amount of overreaction (especially within the fantasy community) is to be expected. We weigh what we see in the first slate of games to a much heavier degree than we probably should, but…
OK, on to more relevant things…
WEEK 13 BUY!!!
Do your best day-trader impression and click furiously until you have the following on your roster:
The Bears are protecting him. Brandon Marshall is a beast. Martellus Bennett is a legit red-zone threat. Matt Forte remains one of the elite rushers in the NFL. Alshon Jeffery will continue to emerge. Marc Trestman is going to win coach of the year. Pick any of the above reasons and roster Cutler.
Love that sidearm action. No, seriously, for as cheap as you can get him right now, if you’re hurting at the position, he’s worth a roster spot. Especially in deeper leagues. Don’t underestimate what new Chargers point man Mike McCoy can do for an offense.
Really like the looks I saw out of play action. Houston also showed a willingness to throw more often in the red zone instead of just Foster, Foster, and uh, more Foster.
Cheap. Like, probably still available on waivers. I’ve written extensively about him in this young season. Montee Ball has the talent, but Moreno has the trust. In an offense where everything runs through Peyton Manning, I’ll take the guy with trust. And if he’s on the field a lot to pass block, well, we all know how much Peyton likes to audible.
Last week I had Ballard ranked in the top-50 flex plays. He underwhelmed with a mere 63 yards, but the bigger point is: I think he remains the Colts starting running back until further notice. And with extended usage, the touchdowns will eventually be there.
One Reggie Bush injury away from fantasy stardom.
Murray had 28 total touches in week one, and that’s not a fluke. He broke double digits without scoring a touchdown and I think he finds the endzone this week. Is this finally the year Murray stays healthy? One can only hope.
An obvious name. But someone in your league may want to bail on him after a miserable week one for MJD and the even more-miserable Jaguars. He’s worth a shot as a very strong buy-low candidate.
Yeah, I’m on the Eagles bandwagon. Fantasy goodness, say it with me now, is a combination of talent and opportunity. If your head coach wants to run 70-80 plays a game, that’s a lot of opportunity. And it’s not like Jackson is all that short on talent, either.
Yes, it’s a name you’ve probably heard a lot this week. Brown has great size and I can see him developing into a nice red zone threat, especially with the Ravens missing Dennis Pitta. Torrey Smith will be alright (though perhaps not this weekend as he draws Joe Haden) in the long run, but against Denver Smith did not play his best game. He looked mediocre and at times unmotivated. Too harsh? Watch the second half game film.
If he’s not available on waivers, you can probably target him in a trade and not have to give up a whole lot. As long as Tony Romo can stay upright, Austin should give you solid WR3 and maybe low-end WR2 production.
Loved him heading into the season and all week one did is confirm my glorious desire to have Edelman rostered. He’s a veteran who Tom Brady trusts and can line up out wide or in the slot.
The week one touchdowns went to Leonard Hankerson, but I really like to see that Garcon received 11 targets. 7-for-64 isn’t great, but if he keeps getting the looks he will do much better in weeks to come.
Yeah, I’m all-in on the Bears this year. I really think they will have five fantasy-relevant players on their roster when all is said and done: Cutler, Marshall, Forte, Jeffery, and Bennett. I could see Bennett easily reaching 900 yards and 8 scores this season.
All of the Panthers had a miserable week one, but he won’t face Seattle every week. I like him as the number one option in the Panthers passing game (yes, I’m moving him ahead of the timeless Steve Smith) moving forward.
Get these guys out of your lineup before they cause more damage.
One big name this week…
I was never a huge Wilson fan as a fantasy commodity. I love the guy as an NFL player, but the problem is this: opportunity. In 2012, Wilson’s highest attempts in a single game was 37… and that was in an overtime matchup in Chicago. In fact, counting that game, he only attempted more than 30 passes THREE TIMES all season. I understand he’s a phenomenal talent, accurate and mobile. But he’s simply not a fantasy superstar. The elite quarterbacks all throw more and have better weapons in the receiving corps than Wilson does in Seattle. I’ve been low on him all offseason, and I’m sticking to my guns on this one.
I’m lumping all the “Sell” position players together because they’re all from the same two teams. Sell all your Oakland Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers. And yeah, I mean everybody.
Darren McFadden put up a nice double-digit week for you. If you can get an equal-tier back or receiver, you should. The same applies to Denarius Moore and Rod Streator. They will all be frustratingly inconsistent and I can think of a large number of names I’d rather take a flier on, Marlon Brown, Julian Edelman and Alshon Jeffery listed above, for example.
On the Pittsburgh side, one lesson was well learned: it’s pretty hard to succeed without an offensive line. Jonathan Dwyer will be a hot pickup this week and I could see him having a decent game or two, but you won’t know when. I’d avoid him. LeVeon Bell is the only ownable Steeler at the moment, and only as a deeply stashed prospect. I’m not starting any of them unless I have to. That means I’m selling on Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, Heath Miller, and Isaac Redman. The Steelers are like the Jaguars except with no Maurice Jones-Drew or Cecil Shorts. In short: you don’t want any part of them.
This column is meant to help you primarily with your trade targets and waiver claims. The names listed above are names I believe at the moment, in the majority of leagues, are a good value target: meaning, you can get them for a price lower than their now-to-end production should garner. Buying, selling, and trading is all about value. If you run into a particular owner who clearly has his sense of player value out of whack, find another trade partner to deal with.
Case in point: in one of my PPR leagues I have Arian Foster, CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson, Darren Sproles, and Ryan Matthews. Yeah. I’m stacked. Hey, I’m awesome at auction drafting, what can I say. In any case, I don’t have a quarterback as I dropped Ben Roethlisberger this week to pick up Julius Thomas. Another team in our league has Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, and Cam Newton but is currently using Fred Jackson as his RB2. I offered him multiple deals involving both Spiller and Richardson for a QB, and he fired back with such offers as Cam Newton for both Richardson and Pierre Garcon. Keep in mind: he’s rostering 3 QBs in a league where you can only play 1 of them and with only 4 total bench spots to get you through the byes. It’s likely I’ll be picking up one of his QBs when he has to drop them later in the season, but I needed the help now. After refusing a variety of thoroughly lopsided deals, I ended up moving Ryan Matthews for Michael Vick with an owner who already had Colin Kaepernick. Many times, “Buying” is simply about finding a deal that will work for both parties involved. Act accordingly!
Best of luck in week 2. As always, you can tweet me: @petethegreekff or follow my blog at petegreek.blogspot.com