Pre Training Camp: ADP Value Report
QB- Matt Ryan– Atlanta Falcons ADP (7th round 3th pick) – Matt Ryan had a solid season last year. He finished as a top 10 fantasy QB for the Falcons and I look for him to build on that this season. With Michael Turner aging and Roddy White and Julio Jones lining up on the outside I see them being a dynamic passing unit this season. Ryan is currently the 11th QB off the board and I don’t think it’s out of the question that he could put together a top 6 QB season for fantasy owners.
QB- Philip Rivers– San Diego Chargers ADP (6th round, 9th pick) – Rivers had a down year last season but he still threw 27 touchdowns and finished as a top 10 fantasy QB coming in at #9. With his ADP in 2011 at 3.01 I look for Rivers to be a bargain this year and will chalk his high interception rate of the 2011 season on a reported elbow injury and a lack of effort from Vincent Jackson on some of his routes. Look for Rivers to rebound this season and get back to his 2010 form.
The running back position falls off quick this year so it’s essential to find value in the mid to late rounds if you wish to spend one of your early round picks on a QB/WR/TE….. Here’s a list of three guys that I think are undervalued as of now and should exceed their current ADP.
RB- Shonn Greene– New York Jets ADP (5th round, 6th pick)- I know, I know, I know many fantasy owners were burned by Greene last season as he was often taken in the late 2nd to the mid/end of the 3rd round in standard 12 team leagues. But I don’t have a problem taking him in the middle of the 5th round this year. He’s currently the 23rd RB off the board and I like the way he ended the season last year, in the last 6 games he averaged 99.5 total yards per game had 4 touchdowns (3 of them in one game) and 13 receptions.
RB- C.J. Spiller– Buffalo Bills ADP (7th round, 7th pick) – When Fred Jackson went down in week 11 Spiller proved he could be a reliable feature back….. He averaged 105 total yards per game, had 5 touchdowns and also hauled 24 receptions in that 6 game span….. Now Jackson is back to full health and there’s no question he was having a career year before he went down but I don’t think Chan Gailey will keep Spiller off the field with his dynamic play making ability….. Spiller offers nice upside as the 31st RB off the board and should be targeted especially in PPR leagues.
RB- LeGarette Blount- Tampa Bay Buccaneers ADP (9th round, 10th pick) – Do I think Doug Martin will have success in Greg Schianos offense? Yes…. Do I think he will get the brunt of the workload in his rookie year? No…… Blount is the 43rd running back off the board and is a nice VALUE pick as I envision him getting most if not all of the goal line work and to still get 10-14 touches a game.
RB- Tim Hightower– Washington Redskins ADP (11th round, 6th pick) – This is a situation to keep an eye on as camp evolves. It’s been stated that Hightower is the starter in Washington if he’s healthy…. Obviously his ADP will only go up if this is the case but if you’re drafting anytime soon he is worth a late round flier as he’s currently the 49th RB off the board and offers considerable upside.
Others to watch- Donald Brown ADP (7th round, 6th pick), Toby Gerhart ADP (9th round, 4th pick), Ryan Williams ADP (9th round, 7th pick), Felix Jones ADP (10th round, 12th pick), Robert Turbin ADP (13th round, 4th pick)
The wide receiver position is littered with quality talent throughout the whole draft and I believe it’s by far the deepest out of any. …You can find high upside/serviceable players throughout every round. ….. Here I’m going to list WR’s whose ADP has them being available from the 9th round on.
WR- Lance Moore– New Orleans Saints ADP (9th round, 12th pick) – With Robert Meachem gone and Drew Brees slinging it to everybody in the stadium Moore has some breakout potential this season… I don’t think it’s out of the question that we
see another comparable 2008 season from Moore in which he had 79 catches, 928 yards and 10 TD’s…..As the 41st WR off the board the potential is there.
WR- Greg Little– Cleveland Browns ADP (10th round, 2nd pick)- Last year we were spoiled with exceptional rookie WR play and Little’s solid season flew under the radar….. He finished last season with 61 catches for 709 and 2 touchdowns…. Yes, he did have some drop issues but I’ll attribute that with a year off from football and a lockout shortened offseason…. I look for those numbers to improve this year and I see Little as a serviceable WR3 with WR2 upside. He’s currently the 43rd WR off the board.
WR- Brian Quick- St. Louis Rams ADP (11th round, 6th pick) – Quick will come into camp as the #1 WR for the Rams. The opportunity and potential is there for him to put up the best numbers out of any of the rookie WR’s…. At best you will happily take a Mike Williams type rookie year out of him ( 65 catches, 968 yards, 11 TD’s) but I at least see him putting up comparable numbers to Greg Little’s rookie year.
WR- Kendall Wright- Tennessee Titans ADP (13th round, 10th pick) – Wright is someone who should start to rise up draft boards because of the recent medical/ off the field problems that Kenny Britt always seems to have… I fully expect a Kenny Britt suspension and Wright will benefit greatly from that.
Just like the wide receivers the tight end position is now deeper than ever. If you don’t pull the trigger on Rob Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham early there’s still great value available later on in the draft.
TE- Aaron Hernandez– New England Patriots ADP (6th round, 6th pick) – There’s no question about it Hernandez has the versatility and the right quarterback to improve his numbers from last year (79 catches, 910 yards, 7 TD’s)…. He’s used everywhere on offense and in the 6th round I think he’s a better value than the man they call GRONK.
TE- Fred Davis– Washington Redskins ADP (7th round, 12th pick) – Davis put together a solid season last year despite only playing in 12 games (59 receptions, 796 yards, 3 TD’s)…. With a new rookie signal caller in town I expect Davis to be targeted early and often and could see him cracking the top 6 for fantasy tight ends.
Questions/Comments: Contact me on twitter @FD_JayD
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